The Oscars
I'm not very good at predicting what other people, including the academy, will think about a particular movie: I won a contest once in which I guessed all the major winners right, but that was back in 1988 (Johnny Carson still had four more years to go on "The Tonight Show" at that time), and I haven't been very close yet. Still, because a few people always ask each year, here are my own particular choices... what I'd vote for among the films and performances that were nominated... along with my guesses (I won't call them predictions) regarding what the academy might do.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will win: John Logan, "The Aviator"
Should win: Keir Pearson and Terry George, "Hotel Rwanda"
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, "Sideways"
Should win: "Sideways"
DIRECTOR
Will win: Martin Scorcese, "The Aviator"
Should win: Clint Eastwood, "Million Dollar Baby"
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Cate Blanchett, "The Aviator"
Should win: Sophie Okonedo, "Hotel Rwanda"
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win: Morgan Freeman, "Million Dollar Baby"
Should win: Morgan Freeman
ACTRESS
Will win: Hillary Swank, "Million Dollar Baby"
Should win: Annette Bening, "Being Julia"
ACTOR
Will win: Jamie Foxx, "Ray"
Should win: Don Cheadle, "Hotel Rwanda"
FILM
Will win: "The Aviator"
Should win: "Ray"
It pains me to go with someone other than Jamie Foxx in "Ray" for best actor and Cate Blanchett for supporting actress in "The Aviator", and I certainly wouldn't be sad if they won... but Cheqadle and Okonedo were just so good. In fact, I think Terry George should have been nominated for best director for "Hotel Rwanda" and the movie itself for best film, as well. Not to mention how Sean Penn should have been nominated for "The Assassination of Richard Nixon", among a few other omissions. Oh, well... as Steven Wright once said: "You can't have everything... where would you put it?"
Coming next week, hopefully, in addition to more movie comments, by popular request, a blog entry or two about the best TV series of the past decade: "Buffy The Vampire Slayer".
posted by Joe Bunce at
4:33 PM
2 Comments:
With Scorcese, it's definitely a case of being "Due". Much like Pacino winning best actor for "Scent of a Woman" instead of his actualy best work, or Paul Newman for "Color Of Money", Scorcese is likely to pick one up for a film that is certainly one of the memorable films of THIS YEAR, but certainly not equal to other movies for which he's been passed over. In some of the other cases, the "will win" picks are according to patterns the academy has established in the past... they do tend to have certain kinds of movies and performances they consistently vote for.
As far as "Fahrenheit 9/11" and "The Passion"... I'd say there
probably never really was any serious chance for "The Passion" getting any top awards. But I do believe "Fahrenheit 9/11" might very well have at least gotten a nomination, if not a likely win just two years after "Bowling for Columbine". However, Michael Moore took it out of consideration for Best documentary feature and seriously campaigned for it as Best Picture, and I don't believe a documentary has ever been nominated for Best Picture in the history of the Oscars.
By
Joe Bunce, at 4:14 PM
With Scorcese, it's definitely a case of being "Due". Much like Pacino winning best actor for "Scent of a Woman" instead of his actualy best work, or Paul Newman for "Color Of Money", Scorcese is likely to pick one up for a film that is certainly one of the memorable films of THIS YEAR, but certainly not equal to other movies for which he's been passed over. In some of the other cases, the "will win" picks are according to patterns the academy has established in the past... they do tend to have certain kinds of movies and performances they consistently vote for.
As far as "Fahrenheit 9/11" and "The Passion"... I'd say there
probably never really was any serious chance for "The Passion" getting any top awards. But I do believe "Fahrenheit 9/11" might very well have at least gotten a nomination, if not a likely win just two years after "Bowling for Columbine". However, Michael Moore took it out of consideration for Best documentary feature and seriously campaigned for it as Best Picture, and I don't believe a documentary has ever been nominated for Best Picture in the history of the Oscars.
By
Joe Bunce, at 4:14 PM
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